Macro and Rates
Every TraderMagz research note on Macro and Rates — thesis, what is priced in, and the live terminal state.
The Liquidity Shock That Hasn't Arrived
I rebuilt US net liquidity from Fed data and it was $5.78 trillion on 30 September, up just $8 billion on a year ago. The direction is up, but official guidance points to about a third of the jump people are talking about, and with real yields at 2008 highs the bond market is setting the terms.
Yields Past the Speed Limit: What History Says About the Next Six Months
The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.28% on 2 October, a level last seen in 2002, after rising about 50 basis points in a month. In 12 similar spikes since 1993, the climb was painful for rate-sensitive assets and the big gains came only after yields stopped rising. The first time yields broke the speed limit was usually not the top.