Macro and Rates

Yields Past the Speed Limit: What History Says About the Next Six Months

The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.28% on 2 October, a level last seen in 2002, after rising about 50 basis points in a month. In 12 similar spikes since 1993, the climb was painful for rate-sensitive assets and the big gains came only after yields stopped rising. The first time yields broke the speed limit was usually not the top.