Research
House theses on the themes, sectors and single names we track — published with the terminal's live read on each one.
Circle and the Rise of Stablecoins: Bear, Base and Bull
Stablecoins are turning from a crypto trading chip into payment plumbing, and Circle issues the biggest regulated one. We turn three versions of that future into Circle's 2029 numbers and find today's price already assumes USDC roughly triples, a bit more than our own base case.
Midnight: The Privacy Chain Regulators Might Actually Allow
Midnight is Cardano's privacy chain: apps can prove facts without exposing the data behind them, and fees are paid in a private, non-tradeable resource that NIGHT generates. The design is the most regulator-friendly in privacy crypto, but NIGHT has nearly tripled in six weeks, captures no fees, and half its supply sits with two Midnight entities. We would buy weakness, not this spike.
Pyth: Why We Are Holding the Oracle That Prices Tokenization
Pyth has turned a free DeFi oracle into a paid market-data business, with ARR up about 11x in nine months to $11.5M and every DAO revenue dollar now buying PYTH. We hold it for the tokenization cycle and add on weakness, but the price already assumes strong growth and a 27% float increase lands in May 2027.
The Liquidity Shock That Hasn't Arrived
I rebuilt US net liquidity from Fed data and it was $5.78 trillion on 30 September, up just $8 billion on a year ago. The direction is up, but official guidance points to about a third of the jump people are talking about, and with real yields at 2008 highs the bond market is setting the terms.
Following the AI Capex Dollar: Where $100 Actually Goes
Markets trade "AI capex" as if it were one ticker. Split an illustrative $100 of hyperscaler spend and half is semiconductors, a fifth is power, and more than a third is the physical plant (power, cooling, and buildings). The investable question is which bottlenecks stay scarce after the GPU headline cools.
Tempus AI: Still a Lab, Priced for the Rest
Tempus still makes about three-quarters of its money from genomic testing. The data and AI business is real and growing faster, but it is a quarter of sales, and its margin just fell. A $14.5 billion enterprise value needs one of those businesses to become much more profitable than it is today.
Yields Past the Speed Limit: What History Says About the Next Six Months
The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.28% on 2 October, a level last seen in 2002, after rising about 50 basis points in a month. In 12 similar spikes since 1993, the climb was painful for rate-sensitive assets and the big gains came only after yields stopped rising. The first time yields broke the speed limit was usually not the top.
The Wafer Makers: TSMC, ASML, Lam, Marvell and Arm
Everyone owns AI through GPUs, and the companies that actually make the chips have rerated too, but very unevenly. We run a reverse-DCF across TSMC, ASML, Marvell, Lam and Arm and find the purest choke point priced for the slowest growth, while Arm is priced for a decade of perfection.
HOOD — Equity Mirror of Robinhood Chain
The crypto note already priced retail L2 and launchpad heat. HOOD the stock still mostly trades as a scaled brokerage multiple — either the chain is already inside that premium, or the equity is carrying an unpriced call on tokenization that GAAP will not show for a while.
AI Infra Dips — Astera Labs, Nebius, IREN
Hyperscaler CapEx is still the tide, but the non-GPU sleeve got sold with the GPU complex. We separate Astera’s profitable connectivity franchise from Nebius and IREN — where the drawdowns look more like dilution and delivery debates than vanished contracts.
AI Power & Nuclear — Oklo, Nano Nuclear, Constellation
Hyperscaler power scarcity is the CapEx wave after GPUs. We separate who already sells firm nuclear megawatts under binding PPAs (Constellation) from who is still pricing FOAK licensing, dilution, and offtake conversion (Oklo, Nano Nuclear).
Memory Basket — SK Hynix, Micron, Samsung
AI memory is a scarcity supercycle, not a PC/mobile bounce. We compare SK Hynix, Micron, and Samsung on HBM leverage, margins, and contracts — and ask what today’s “cheap” forwards actually assume if peak margins snap.
Robinhood Chain, Pons, and Arbitrum — Retail L2 Meets Launchpad Heat
Two months after mainnet, Robinhood Chain already shows ~$909M DefiLlama DeFi TVL. Pons — not “Ponds” — is printing pump.fun-class fees on that chain without taking Solana share. ARB is the stack claim underneath, re-rated into a mid-September unlock.